Published by Dennis Stagliano in football betting, sports betting, nfl betting · 12 January 2023
Tags: nfl, player, props
Tags: nfl, player, props
Welcome Back Bettors!
I like to look under the stats for my long-term NFL player prop UNDERS and here’s the reason why.
Sure, it was exciting watching:
- Derrick Henry go OVER 1350.5 rushing yards this year.
- Justin Jefferson go OVER 1350.5 receiving yards.
- Patrick Mahomes go OVER 4599.5 passing yards.
But we also understand that even the game’s biggest names don’t always hit their number.
- Jonathan Taylor – UNDER 1450.5 rushing yards this year
- Cooper Kupp – UNDER 1300.5 receiving yards
- Tom Brady – UNDER 4699.5 passing yards
Before the 2022-23 NFL season kicked off, I hinted at how I believed you should approach the NFL player prop market this year.
“When it comes to betting season-long NFL player props, the research being tracked shows that under-player totals are cashing more than overs.”
I was on record as suggesting season-long player prop UNDERS were the play in 2022, But just because I said it out loud doesn’t make it right. Let’s see how I did.
Don’t Rush To Bet Rushing Overs
The first Prop Bet category we want to examine is Total Rushing Yards. I tracked the top 21 projected rushing leaders going into the season. Names like JT, King Henry, Najee, Chubb, and Dalvin Cook. This is what I found out.
As my graph above points out, of the 21 rushing props I tracked, 14 of them went UNDER.
The Impact Of Injury
Looking at the table above, the physical demands to play the running back position in the NFL appears to be extreme.
If you average the number of games played by all 21 RBs we tracked, it equates to 13.35 out of 17. This means our 21 backs average 3.65 games missed due to injury or etc.
- Seven RBs went over their rushing yard total this year. Those seven RBs averaged 16.43 games played.
- Of the seven RBs who went over their rushing prop total, four played all 17 games, and two played in 16 games.
- Only Ezekiel Elliott managed to go OVER his prop total this year, playing in fewer than 16 games, Zeke played in 15 games for the Cowboys. He managed to go OVER his prop total by exactly half a yard.
- The 14 RBs who went under their rushing total averaged 10.93 games played. That is a little bit more than six games missed on average.
- Javonte Williams, Elijah Mitchell, and Rashaad Penny combined to play in just 14 games total.
- Only Najee Harris played in all 17 games and finished below his prop total. Najee finished 163 yards short and would have actually needed a 20-game schedule to hit his number.
Pass On The QB OVERS
When it comes to breaking down QBs, and their season-long prop totals, I tracked the top 18 projected QBs, and this is what I found out. Once again, the UNDERS prevailed.
11 of 18 QBs went UNDER their passing yards total, and only seven managed to go OVER their number.
The table above shows us that when it comes to betting on QBs finding someone who can survive an entire season is key. It is important to note that overall, QBs appeared to avoid serious injury more often than running backs did.
Of the 18 QBs we tracked, they averaged 14.67 games played this year. That is almost 1.5 more games played than the RBs averaged.
- Seven QBs went OVER their passing yard total this year. Those seven QBs averaged 16.71 games played.
- Of the seven QBs who went OVER their total, five played all 17 games, and two played in 16 games.
- There was no QB who was able to go OVER their passing yards prop total playing in less than 16 games this year.
- Tua and Matt Ryan were both on pace to break their total in 15 games or less, but neither QB played enough games.
- The 11 QBs who went under their passing yards total this year averaged 11.82 games played. That is a little bit more than five games missed on average.
- Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, and Tua Tagovailoa headline QBs who were on pace to go over their total this year but just couldn’t play enough games.
- Only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers managed to play all 17 games this year and still finish UNDER their prop total.
Not that anyone would have thought the G.O.A.T. or the two-time defending NFL MVP would be any good this year.
The last player prop category I tracked was receiving yards. How did the top 21 projected pass catchers perform when it came to hitting their season-long prop total?
Although the pass catchers performed much better than our RBs and QBs, they still could not eclipse 50% OVERS.
However, when we analyze injury data for all three player prop categories, we get a glimpse of why receivers performed better than their locker room peers.
Looking at the table above, we see that receivers didn’t get hurt and didn’t miss the same number of games compared to the RBs and QBs.
Overall, WRs and TEs averaged 15 games played this year. That is 1.5 games played more than RBs.
Obviously, the more games played, the greater the chance they will go OVER their prop total.
If WRs are able to stay healthier and play more games, then it would make sense they would have a greater chance of going OVER their prop total more often than the other position players.
What Did I Learn?
If you tracked season-long NFL player prop totals, you could expect UNDERS to hit more often than OVERS. In fact, 60% UNDER BETS is not unrealistic.
We tracked 60 NFL player prop bets from the 2022-23 season and had an overall UNDER record of 36-24. That equates to exactly 60% of the prop bets going UNDER their total.
Injuries were the main reason players did not exceed their prop total. Running Backs and Quarterbacks were injured more often than receivers in the 2022 season, and Running Backs and Quarterbacks both went UNDER their totals significantly more than receivers did.
At the very least, we learned that at the age of 45, Tom Brady threw for 4,994 yards and still fell six yards short of going OVER his prop total this year. If he only had played another set of downs in week 18 or if his receivers didn’t drop so many passes. It’s worth mentioning that the Buccaneers had the second most dropped passes in the NFL this year with 29. If even one of those 29 drops is caught, Brady goes OVER his total yet again. You have set yourself a pretty high bar when at the age of 45, you throw for 4,500 yards and don’t hit the OVER.