Free CFB Pick: MTSU at Liberty
Published by Dennis Stagliano in sports betting · 16 October 2023
Liberty has looked like the class of Conference USA all season long, and it will look to continue its undefeated campaign with a home win against Middle Tennessee State.
Liberty is laying 13.5 points against the visiting Blue Raiders. The Flames have been dynamic on offense and stout on defense,
MTSU - Nicholas Vattiato: Vattiato was stellar in the team's win last week against Louisiana Tech, completing 23-of-29 passes for 248 yards with three total touchdowns. This is a pass-happy MTSU offense that will go up against a stout Liberty defense, Vattiato will need to be at his best for the Blue Raiders to have a chance.
Liberty - Kaidon Salter: Salter has done it all for the undefeated Flames this season, posting a 14-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while rushing for nearly 400 yards with six touchdowns. While the Flames typically go to the ground game, top 10 in rush plays per game, the offense is potent through the air, seventh in EPA/Pass this season.
The Flames have been one of the best Group of Five teams in the country, elite on both sides of the ball. Liberty has scored 30 or more in all but one game this season and has allowed more than 20 just twice. The team can win on both sides of the ball and I expect more of the same against Middle Tennessee.
The Blue Raiders are finishing a grueling stretch to start the season, playing its eighth game in a row that started against two SEC foes and has featured four straight weekday games. The Blue Raiders passing game grades out nicely this season, right around the national average in EPA/Pass, but the team is going to go up against an overpowering defense.
The Flames are allowing the second lowest completion percentage to opponents this season (51%) and are second in turnovers gained on the year (15). I expect MTSU to struggle to sustain drives on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, this Blue Raiders defense will likely struggle to get the Flames off the field. While the team has done well to limit explosive plays over the balance of the year, the sheer amount of points opponents are scoring is staggering.
The Blue Raiders have allowed 31, 45 and 23 points in conference play while checking in 98th in success rate and 119th in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Liberty will be able to march down the field and score often. The Flames are averaging more than three points per drive and the dual threat Salter should have an easy evening at home in another blowout win. TAKE: LIBERTY - 13.5
