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NFL Pick: Cincinnati at Kansas City

Published by Dennis Stagliano in football betting · 27 January 2023
Tags: CincinnativsKansasCityPick
Welcome Back Bettors!

One very famous ankle has recently dominated the sports betting headlines. It’s NFL Conference Championship Weekend. It’s Bengals vs Chiefs - The Playoff Rematch - It’s Ankle-Gate.

The Out Of Control Point Spread

Most of us have seen the gruesome incident that temporarily knocked Patrick Mahomes out of the game last week and has sent the Bengals vs Chiefs point spread on an absolutely wild roller coaster ride this week.
Let me walk you through a little of that point spread volatility to the current NFL Odds.

Sunday January 22nd - 6pm ET
Odds: KC -3 | -110
Not long after the Kansas City Chiefs eliminated the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend, odds for the Bengals vs Chiefs playoff rematch had been set. By 6pm ET, Twitter was buzzing with reports KC -3 (-110) was available for the betting market to pounce on. And pounce they did.

Sunday January 22nd - 11pm ET
Odds: KC -1.5
We are only 5-hours into the betting window, and already the market has determined KC -3 was not a very good number. Many sportsbooks closed Sunday night KC -1.5. The betting market moved this line 1.5 points, and it isn’t even Monday morning yet. The majority of bettors haven’t even considered checking the odds.

Monday January 23rd - 5pm ET
Odds: KC +1
At this point, we are less than 24 hours since the opening number was released, and the Chiefs have moved from a three-point favorite to a one-point underdog. A four-point swing without any new information on the status of Patrick Mahomes and his injured ankle.
This means recreational doctors everywhere have determined either Chad Henne will be the starting QB for KC or Mahomes himself will be so limited in his ability that the Bengals should now be the betting favorite.

Tuesday January 24th - 11pm ET
Odds: KC +2.5
The narrative that Mahomes is likely a lame-duck QB has gone totally mainstream. We are just two days in, and the point spread has now moved 5.5 points, with the Bengals almost a field goal favorite after opening as a field goal underdog. Whispers of Chad Henne player props being offered are floating around sportsbooks.

Wednesday January 25th - 5pm ET
Odds: KC +1 to KC -1 are different sportsbooks.
It’s not quite dinner time on the East Coast, but the odds are once again jumping in a different direction! Patrick Mahomes just gave a very inspiring press conference, telling us what we already knew. Nothing was going to keep him out of this game, not even a sore ankle. But then Mahomes did something that caught our attention for real. He walked off the stage. In fact, some think he actually kinda skipped off the stage. No cast or walking boot. No crutches. Not even a visible limp. It was only a 15-foot walk, and we only had one camera angle to view it, but we all saw what we saw. There was no doubt Mahomes was back and some were now suggesting he was possibly better than ever!
At 5pm ET, you could find the Chiefs as a -1-point favorite or as a +1 underdog.
Thursday January 25th - 5pm ET
Odds: KC - 1
It is almost dinner time Thursday on the East Coast, and the betting world has become united. The Kansas City Chiefs are the betting favorite, albeit just a point. Almost all sportsbooks are at the same number, which is KC -1. This point-spread ride started with the Chiefs at -3 and swung all the way to the Bengals -2.5. But, the market has settled, at least for now, at KC -1.
Anyone who bought at their peak and is stuck with a Bengals -2.5 ticket right now, fingers crossed that the final score is anything but Cincinnati by 1 or 2.

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Best of luck with your NFL Conference Championship picks and parlays this weekend.

Dennis Stagliano

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