NFL Divisional Round Free Prop Pick

Published by Dennis Stagliano in football betting · 20 January 2023
Tags: free, nfl, prop, pick, divisional, rouind, nfl, best, prop, pick

Welcome Back Gridiron Gold Bettors!

Does everyone remember how this round of the NFL Divisional playoffs played out last year?

2021-22 Divisional Round Recap:

Game 1 - Joe Burrow drives 20 yards in 19 seconds, and Evan McPherson hits a game-winning 52-yard field goal on the game's last play. The Bengals upset the Titans, 19-16.

Game 2 - Jimmy Garoppolo uses 9-plays to go 44 yards. Robbie Gould kicks a game-winning field goal as time expires. The 49ers upset the Packers at Lambeau, 13-10.

Game 3 - After Brady and the Bucs tied the game with 42 seconds left, Matthew Stafford drives 63 yards in 40 seconds. That sets up Matt Gay for a game-winning, walk-off field goal. Rams 30 - Brady 27.

Game 4 - Bills vs Chiefs. Instant Classic. Somehow even better than the first three games. Chiefs win in OT, 42-36.

Crazy to believe, but last year, three of the four underdogs won outright, and the fourth ‘Dog lost in OT.

It was truly an incredible weekend of football. Will this year will be more of the same?

Divisional Round Data

The four games last year were over the top when it comes to NFL playoff drama. All four matchups were decided on the game's final play. However, we were curious to know if this Underdog thing was a consistent trend at this point of the season. So we dug into the Divisional Round playoff data a little more.

Our table above tells us that:

Home teams are winning outright at 70%. (The home team was also the betting favorite in 19 of those 20 games.)
Last year, with three of the four underdogs winning on the road, we saw a bit of a market correction.
Against the spread (ATS), we see that favorites and underdogs have each covered 50% of the time.

We did spot that blindly betting Underdogs on their moneyline has been a profitable strategy over the last 20 games (5 years).

In three of the five years, the strategy made money.

The biggest underdog to win outright that we came across was the 2019 Tennessee Titans.

The Titans (+430) were +10 ‘dogs to the Baltimore Ravens and won the game outright, 28-12.
For comparison, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+370) are less of an underdog this year against the Chiefs in Kansas City.

Run Danny Run

In the Giants impressive win on the road last week, NYG QB Daniel Jones had himself some kind of game. Jones threw for over 300 yards passing and had 78 yards rushing as well.

In fact, Danny was the games leading passer and leading rusher. In his last two starts, Daniel Jones has rushed for 169 yards. (84.5/game)

Obviously, two weeks does not make a full season. So we dove into his rushing yard numbers a little deeper.

The stats above show that D Jones is starting to run more as the season progresses. DJ has averaged over 50 yards per game in his last five starts. That is 13 yards more than he was averaging early in the season.

This week, you can find Jones’ Rushing Yard Prop Total at 43.5 or 45.5 yards.

DJ Quick Hitters:

In the regular season (16 GP), Jones averaged 44.5 rushing yards per game. (That explains his prop total it would seem)
Including his one playoff game, Jones has rushed for more than 43.5 yards seven times in 17 games. (41%)
In his one start against the Eagles this year, Jones had four carries for 26 rushing yards.

When I first saw DJ’s rushing prop total at 43.5, I thought my research and analysis would lead me to drop one unit on the OVER. That 43.5 number is a very interesting number.

My free NFL prop pick is Daniel Jones Rushes for Over 43.5 yards.

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